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Abstract As a widespread vector of disease with an expanding range, the mosquitoAedes albopictusSkuse (Diptera: Culicidae) is a high priority for research and management.A. albopictushas a complex life history with aquatic egg, larval and pupal stages, and a terrestrial adult stage. This requires targeted management strategies for each life stage, coordinated across time and space. Population genetics can aid inA. albopictuscontrol by evaluating patterns of genetic diversity and dispersal. However, how life stage impacts population genetic characteristics is unknown. We examined whether patterns ofA. albopictusgenetic diversity and differentiation changed with life stage at a spatial scale relevant to management efforts. We first conducted a literature review of field‐caughtA. albopictuspopulation genetic papers and identified 101 peer‐reviewed publications, none of which compared results between life stages. Our study uniquely examines population genomic patterns of egg and adultA. albopictusat five sites in Wake County, North Carolina, USA, using 8425 single nucleotide polymorphisms. We found that the level of genetic diversity and connectivity between sites varied between adults and eggs. This warrants further study and is critical for research aimed at informing local management. 

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne illness in the continental USA. WNV occurrence has high spatiotemporal variation, and current approaches to targeted control of the virus are limited, making forecasting a public health priority. However, little research has been done to compare strengths and weaknesses of WNV disease forecasting approaches on the national scale. We used forecasts submitted to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge, an open challenge organized by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to assess the status of WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) prediction and identify avenues for improvement. Methods We performed a multi-model comparative assessment of probabilistic forecasts submitted by 15 teams for annual WNND cases in US counties for 2020 and assessed forecast accuracy, calibration, and discriminatory power. In the evaluation, we included forecasts produced by comparison models of varying complexity as benchmarks of forecast performance. We also used regression analysis to identify modeling approaches and contextual factors that were associated with forecast skill. Results Simple models based on historical WNND cases generally scored better than more complex models and combined higher discriminatory power with better calibration of uncertainty. Forecast skill improved across updated forecast submissions submitted during the 2020 season. Among models using additional data, inclusion of climate or human demographic data was associated with higher skill, while inclusion of mosquito or land use data was associated with lower skill. We also identified population size, extreme minimum winter temperature, and interannual variation in WNND cases as county-level characteristics associated with variation in forecast skill. Conclusions Historical WNND cases were strong predictors of future cases with minimal increase in skill achieved by models that included other factors. Although opportunities might exist to specifically improve predictions for areas with large populations and low or high winter temperatures, areas with high case-count variability are intrinsically more difficult to predict. Also, the prediction of outbreaks, which are outliers relative to typical case numbers, remains difficult. Further improvements to prediction could be obtained with improved calibration of forecast uncertainty and access to real-time data streams (e.g. current weather and preliminary human cases). Graphical Abstract